Vietnam: from a Frontier Economy to an Emerging Market

By: Lucrezia Brunelli

Introduction

Over the past decades, Vietnam has transitioned from an agricultural low-income country to a dynamic and growing economy, becoming one of the most remarkable examples of economic transformation in the global South. This evolution has been reflected in the FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Vietnam, that from September 2026, will be upgraded from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market status. This transition clearly indicates that the country’s economic conditions, financial markets and regulatory frameworks have improved enough to meet higher international standards.  

Vietnam’s rise is also a consequence of its particular geopolitical and geoeconomic context. On 28 July 1997, Vietnam became one of the ten official members of the ASEAN, which is now considered to be one of the most successful inter-governmental organisations in the developing world. The ASEAN region has made significant progresses in economic integration and free trade: its member states freely trade among themselves, with few to no trade barriers, contributing to the region’s reputation as one of the most dynamic growing areas worldwide. Moreover, Vietnam’s strategic location at the crossroads of major maritime routes represents both an opportunity for the country’s relevance in the global economic system, and a risk, increasing its vulnerability to external shocks and supply chain disruptions. 

From an investment point of view, Vietnam is becoming an increasingly attractive economy: its rapid socioeconomic growth, its favourable demographics and the possibility to develop different sectors and industries attract FDI within the country. However, structural constraints continue to limit investment inflows, casting doubts on the profitability of investing in Vietnam. Therefore, it is necessary to balance costs and benefits to properly assess the risks and the opportunities that shape Vietnam’s position in the international system.  

1. Economic Growth  

1.1 Doi Moi Reforms: from Agriculture to Manufacturing and Services

Since the late 1980s, Vietnam has undergone a rapid economic development, transforming from one of the poorest economies worldwide into a lower middle-income country with a growing economy (Baum, 2020). In 1986, the Communist Party of Vietnam implemented the Doi Moi reforms, a series of political and economic policies, dismantling the country’s centrally planned economy and opening its market to global trade and foreign investment. This was accompanied by a wide social agenda, mostly focusing on the promotion of education and the development of crucial policies in the energy sector. The rapid growth that followed tripled the per capita GDP by 2015, and the poverty rate capturing the share of the population living below USD 1.90 per day fell by almost 55% (Figure 1). 

                                                                                                            Figure 1, Source: World Bank (WDI)

The Vietnamese economic growth, which achieved an annual rate of more than 7% by the late 1990s, was initially driven by agricultural reforms, removing price controls on agricultural products, subsidizing irrigation systems and expanding planted areas (Baum, 2020). The reforms also encouraged private business, limiting government monopolies and reducing the number of state-owned enterprises. Vietnam rapidly integrated into the world economy and joined the WTO in 2007. In the years following the Doi Moi reforms, the GDP share of the agricultural sector was reduced in favor of manufacturing and service sectors. Trade integration, combined with FDI inflows and low-tariff imports, enabled the country to export low- and high-tech manufacturing products.

1.2 Vietnam as a Dynamic Economy

Based on data provided by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (2025), Vietnam’s economy is currently growing at an annual rate of almost 6.5%, with exports and household consumption being the key drivers. Vietnam is a net exporter: it exports more than it imports, so it displays a positive trade balance. This signals that Vietnam’s export-driven economy is performing well, promoting macro-economic stability and helping the country build foreign exchange reserves. Its per capita GDP remains particularly low, but it has improved significantly over the past decades (it has doubled between 2012 and 2024).

As revealed by the ASEAN Regional Economic Outlook (2024), Vietnam’s sustained GDP growth contributes to the classification of the Southeast Asian region as the fourth largest economy worldwide and one of the most rapidly growing economies in the global South. Its GDP growth continues to outpace global averages, underpinned by strong domestic consumption, rapid urbanisation and ongoing industrial transformation. In particular, Vietnam appears to be the major growth engine in ASEAN, followed by the Philippines and Cambodia (Table 1). 

           Table 1, Source: ASEAN Statistics (June 2024), Asian Development Bank (2024)

Vietnam may become one of the fastest-growing emerging markets by 2035, when it is estimated that Asian emerging economies, mainly China, India, Vietnam and the Philippines, will contribute about 65% of global economic growth (S&P Global, 2024). The policies implemented by the Vietnamese Communist Party to reinforce the country’s trade potential are positively affecting its GDP growth. Vietnam has become the seventh-largest exporter to the US, thus increasing its presence in global supply chains. All these factors combined together contribute to painting an optimistic picture of Vietnam’s future as a promising emerging market. 

1.3 Global indices

The FTSE Russell has recently announced that Vietnam will be soon upgraded from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market status, placing it alongside China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Qatar (Ho, 2025).  Vietnam, in fact, is considered to meet the key criteria of market accessibility for foreign investors, market transparency, liquidity, and settlement infrastructure:

• Vietnam introduced a non-prefunding (NPF) trading model, without requiring foreign investors to fully pre-deposit cash before executing trade, thus aligning with global standards.
• It has modernized and digitalized its market infrastructure, improving efficiency and market liquidity.
• There has been a push for more English-language disclosure, in order to reduce the informational asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors.

Vietnam’s reclassification, to be confirmed in September 2026, is expected to attract significant foreign capital, improve market credibility, and promote the country’s economic development, making it a more relevant player in global finance (Ho, 2025). As stated by the Vietnam’s Minister of Finance, Nguyen Van Thang, the country’s upgrade is a confirmation of the fact that Vietnam is on the right track and it is evidence of its growing capacity to integrate into the global financial system.

However, according to the market classification issued by MSCI, Vietnam continues to qualify as a Frontier Market, because it doesn’t meet yet the requirements of market accessibility for foreign investors, liquidity of financial markets and degree of economic development:

• Foreign ownership in the domestic market is significantly limited: many sectors are capped at 49% or 30% and once these limits are reached, foreign investors cannot buy additional shares (Neo, 2025). 
• English information is not readily available, thus reducing transparency and foreign participation in the market. Critical information cannot be easily accessed or verified by foreign investors and this raises the costs of doing business in Vietnam, as investors must spend more time and resources translating documents (Vu, 2025).
• Market liquidity is still insufficient in order for Vietnam to be classified as an emerging market.

Taken together, all these issues prevent Vietnam from meeting MSCI’s standards for Emerging Markets, despite the country’s strong economic growth and increasing global integration. Vietnam currently holds the largest share in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, with a weight of 31.47%. 

                                                                                                        Figure 2, Source: MSCI Vietnam Index 

The IMF (2025) considers Vietnam an emerging market, specifically within the “Emerging Markets and Developing Economies” category, as it meets the criteria of per capita GDP and financial integration:

• Vietnam has a strong GDP growth, reaching an annual growth rate of 6.5% in 2025. 
• It is considered to be a middle-income country.
• It has a large current account surplus, strengthening its macro-economic stability.
• Its export-oriented economy has promoted the county’s trade openness and integration into global value chains.
• Improvements have been made in human capital, especially in terms of education and health, as a result of wide-ranging social reforms implemented by the Vietnamese Communist Party.

The IMF analysis also suggests that, with the right policies and reforms to strengthen governance, promote private investment, and improve anti-money-laundering and financial regulations, Vietnam can replicate growth trajectories of other emerging economies. 

2. Social Development

Vietnam’s rapid economic growth is accompanied by significant social progresses to achieve the Sustainable

Development Goals. The Vietnamese government is strongly determined to pursue its 2030 Agenda, promoting the development of social plans to comply with the SDGs. IMF statistics reveal that Vietnam’s SDG performance is, in many instances, the same as or even higher than that of other emerging markets and middle-income developing economies. 

     Figure 3, Source: IMF staff calculations using Sachs et al. (2017)

2.1 Education For All Action Plan

Since the Doi Moi reforms, education has been a national top priority (Baum, 2020): in 1992, Vietnam adopted the “Education For All” 1993 to 2000 Action Plan, which promoted quality primary education for all, gender equality, and adult literacy, in order to reduce poverty and encourage a better management of human capital. The government also adopted policies to freely provide textbooks, notebooks, and other school supplies to support children coming from more disadvantaged backgrounds. Moreover, adult training and education was re-oriented towards the new needs of the economy, as a result of the expanding manufacturing and services sectors. This allowed to satisfy the labor market’s demand, training competent workers for key economic fields. Today, 20% of budget expenditure is allocated to education every year. The literacy rate is particularly high: based on international assessment standards, in 2016, the literacy rate of children aged 15 or older was 95%. Also, the quality of education has been improved, focusing on teachers’ training programs. However, access to quality education is still constrained, especially for children coming from poor families, rural areas and ethnic minority groups.

2.2 Access to Healthcare 

Improvements in the healthcare sector continue (Baum, 2020): based on data provided by the IMF, 73% of Vietnam’s population has access to essential health services. The maternal mortality rate has declined remarkably and the health expenditure has been increased. Moreover, the government has implemented policies to improve accessibility to health care services for the poor and other vulnerable categories. Despite these achievements, child mortality rates do not comply with the SDG target and the medical staff remains significantly low compared to that of advanced economies. 

2.3 Infrastructure projects and Access to Electricity

Over the past decades, the government has promoted the development of an ambitious infrastructure project, allowing its industries and manufacturing hubs to gain access to basic energy infrastructures (Baum, 2020). The new power generation, transmission and distribution capacity has allowed the country to meet the growing electricity demand, including that of rural areas. Efforts have been made to link the urban centers with the rural peripheries and ensure the connection of the remote areas to power grids, in order to improve the living conditions of the poorer. This project has been funded by promoting the private sector participation through forms of public-private partnership. However, the average consumption of energy is still low compared to that of other emerging markets and infrastructure remains of low quality. In addition, investment in renewable energy is still significantly small and coal production continues to prevail. 

2.4 Human Development Index (HDI) and Gini Index

Vietnam’s HDI score for 2023 was 0.766, classifying the country in the “High Human Development” category (UNDP, 2025). Since 1990s, its HDI value has improved more than 50%. Based on the latest estimates of the World Bank, Vietnam’s Gini Index is approximately 36.1, which indicates a level of moderate inequality, lower than other emerging economies, such as the Philippines (~39.3). This reflects the effectiveness of the poverty-reduction reforms and the positive outcomes of the development policies. However, social inequalities in healthcare access, education and income continue to persist, especially between the rural and the urban populations, and between the ethnic majority and the minorities.

In the light of this, Vietnam is now performing better in the social sphere, improving the country’s social conditions. Particular attention is devoted to more disadvantaged groups, implementing reforms aimed at promoting social equality and ensuring that no one is left behind. Nonetheless, Vietnam still struggles to fully comply with the SDGs set by the United Nations. Transformation is on the right track, but it is not yet complete.

3. Geopolitical, Geostrategic and Geoeconomic Risks and Advantages

Understanding Vietnam’s geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic landscape is essential to assess the risks that challenge the country’s stability and growth, and the advantages that enhance its influence in the global scenario.

3.1 Two sides of the coin: Risks and Opportunities 

Vietnam’s strategic position in Southeast Asia and its long coastline represent an important economic opportunity, as it connects mainland Southeast Asia with major maritime trading routes. Vietnam’s proximity to the Malacca strait is particularly significant, as it is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, strategically linking major Asian economies. This has allowed Vietnam to develop a strong maritime sector and to increase its presence in global supply chains. Its long coastline has also proved to be advantageous for developing industries such as fisheries, marine renewable energy and tourism, and for the construction of ports, serving as a logistical bridge between different regional partners (Dang & Nguyen, 2022). 

However, Vietnam’s particular position exposes the country to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, especially in terms of overlapping maritime claims: China is trying to expand its territorial control, even by building man-made islands beyond the 200 nautical miles, in order to secure its access to the fisheries, minerals, oil, and gas existing in the region, and to increase its control over the Malacca strait. Additionally, the long coastline exposes Vietnam to natural disasters, such as tropical storms, typhoons, and floodings, which can cause significant damage to infrastructure. Vietnam is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels, which seriously threaten the coastal population, causing households’ displacement and disruption of local economic activities. 

Vietnam is now an important economic hub, with a relatively open economy, mostly based on trade, especially in the electronics, textile, and manufacturing sectors.  Such an economic diversification allows to reduce the potential impact of supply chains disruption, geopolitical conflicts, and logistics crises. The more exports are diversified, the more long-term GDP growth is less likely to be compromised. Nonetheless, the Vietnamese export-led growth model is risky, because geopolitical tensions, trade wars and global value chains disruption could significantly affect the country’s economic development. Exports are a key driver for Vietnam’s economy, but this could turn into a serious geoeconomic challenge for the country.

Vietnam’s integration in global trade has benefitted from the “China+1” strategy: the increasing closure of the Chinese markets and the constraints placed on foreign investment have encouraged companies to reconfigure global supply chains and find strategic alternatives to China. As part of a strategy of derisking, decoupling, near- and friendly-shoring, companies have started to move away their production hubs from China and diversify their manufacturing footprints across Asia. This supply chain relocation is now benefitting many emerging markets, including Vietnam. 

Moreover, Vietnam’s membership in ASEAN has proved to be very strategic, as two thirds of the global container trade passes through the Indo-Pacific region. The active engagement in this regional organization has allowed Vietnam to participate in multilateral free trade agreements, such as CPTPP, EVFTA and RCEP. Therefore, the accession to the ASEAN has made it possible for the country to emerge as a more influential voice in the global scenario, benefitting from the cooperation with its regional partners.

Eventually, while much of the world is fragmenting under the pressures of US-China rivalry, tariff wars and divergent standards, the ASEAN countries are offering geopolitical neutrality. They tend to stay away from rivalries, maintain a very neutral stance in their diplomatic relations and follow a non-alignment position. In particular, Vietnam has distinguished itself for the so-called “Bamboo policy”, which defines the county’s stance with respect to other states: especially in the context of the US-China war, Vietnam maintains relations with both, avoiding taking sides. The Vietnamese diplomacy must be as the bamboo: with flexible branches, but with strong roots. This allows the country to maintain relations with other powers, while at the same time reducing its dependency on any single state.

3.2 Allianz Trade’s Country Risk Report

Vietnam is exposed to different types of risk that threaten the country’s stability and growth. Based on the latest data provided by the Allianz Trade’s Country Risk Report (2025), investing and doing business in Vietnam represents a medium risk for enterprises. 

                                                             Figure 4, Source: Allianz Trade (2025)

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing economies in the Indo-Pacific region and a competitive manufacturing hub, with a relatively skilled workforce. Its commercial risk remains low, but it is now more likely to be exposed to the US protectionist trade policies, as the US is Vietnam’s first export destination.

Vietnam has a medium financing risk: monitoring is needed in order to keep in check the opaque banking system, the rising domestic credit, the country’s external debt and its foreign exchange reserves. In fact, the high credit resulting from favorable policies aimed at supporting private firms may raise the debt sustainability in the long term. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves have been declining since mid-2024: if global demand were to drop sharply, the country’s foreign exchange reserves would shrink even more, preventing the Vietnamese central bank from intervening in the market to stabilize the VND. This would cause a sharp depreciation of the domestic currency, possibly leading to higher inflation, capital flight and a more burdensome external debt. 

The score of Vietnam’s business environment risk is below average: despite the positive outcomes in terms of government spending, trade and business freedom, and tax burden, there are still weaknesses in the regulatory and legal frameworks. The lack of transparency and the persistence of corruption undermine business stability in the country. 

Political stability is expected to increase in the coming years. Vietnam is a socialist republic run by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), which is recognised as the leading party by article 4 of the national Constitution. The main source of political instability is represented by competition within the party itself for the four top positions (CPV general secretary, state president, prime minister and chairman of the National Assembly).

4. Risks and Opportunities for Investment

Foreign investors need to carefully assess the risks and the opportunities to navigate and integrate into Vietnam’s business environment, in order to anticipate the profitability of their investing activities. 

4.1 Vietnam as a Promising Investment Destination

According to the latest data provided by UNCTAD (2025), FDI in Vietnam has significantly increased over the past decades: it has grown from just about USD 1.3 billion in 2000 to almost USD 20 billion in 2024. It is important to note how FDI accounts for almost 15% of Vietnam’s total investment, slightly more than domestic private investment, showing how foreign capital plays a crucial role in funding the country’s development. 

                                   Figure 5, Source: UN Trade and Development, UNCTADstat

Moreover, Vietnam’s upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status announced by FTSE Russell is expected to catalyze foreign capital inflows. The World Bank estimates that long-term potential inflows could reach USD 25 billion by 2030 (Singh, 2025). In fact, the country’s reclassification is likely to boost investors’ confidence and trust in the Vietnamese markets, making Vietnam a fertile soil for new investment opportunities.

Based on CBRE’s Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey (2024), Vietnam is the second most preferred emerging market for investment, right after India. Its rapid economic growth, export-oriented strategy and increasing presence in trading activities have emphasized the importance of efficient logistics and infrastructure.  In fact, Vietnam’s growing industrial and manufacturing bases require the implementation of projects of infrastructure development, which represent new profitable business opportunities for foreign investors. 

Additionally, foreign investors are showing strong interest in Vietnam’s real-estate sector (CBRE Group, Inc., 2024): local property owners and developers are currently facing financial difficulties, legal issues, or limited access to funding, which impede them to complete projects or repay loans easily, thus forcing them to sell their assets at lower prices. Foreign investors, who often have easier access to capital, stronger financial positions and expertise in projects management, can step in and purchase those properties. This is a valuable investment opportunity, especially considering that housing demand in Vietnam continues to grow, as a result to the country’s young, urbanizing population and rising middle class. 

Moreover, Vietnam has proved to be an attractive investment destination, due to low labor costs, young workforce, and improving business climate. In the ASEAN region, almost 60% of the total population is under 35 years old, thus reducing the burden to support an aging population with pensions and assistance, and increasing the available workforce. Vietnam has also implemented investment-friendly policies, in order to improve business and attract FDI. These initiatives include the introduction of tax incentives, special economic zones and streamlined regulatory frameworks.

Other investment opportunities derive from the “China+1” strategy: the Chinese protectionist stance has encouraged multinationals to diversify their production away from China, investing in alternative Asian markets, including Vietnam.

4.2 Investment Risks

At the same time, the country’s regulatory environment, structural constraints, and exposure to external shocks pose challenges that investors must carefully assess. 

Although Vietnam has been reclassified by FTSE Russell, it continues to be considered a frontier market according to MSCI standards. As a result, foreign investors and multinationals may decide not to invest in the country or limit FDI inflows, thus compromising Vietnam’s future classification as an “Emerging Market”.  

One of the main constraints is represented by foreign ownership limits, which significantly reduce the market openness (Neo, 2025): some sectors, including banking, real estate, and land-related businesses, impose caps ranging from 30% to 50%, thus restricting foreign participation. As a consequence of this, investment flows may be diverted to regional competitors with more flexible ownership regimes. Reducing such limits could help Vietnam attract greater foreign capital and accelerate even more its development. 

Moreover, the constraints still existing in the Vietnamese economy, especially regulatory and legal complexity, corruption, and lack of transparency, discourage foreign investment. The scarcity of information in English concerning regulations, directives and market conditions, increases the costs for foreign investors, who must make a greater effort to translate documents or hire local advisors to help them navigate the Vietnamese legal and bureaucratic system (Vu, 2025). This raises significantly the cost of entry, reduces transparency and makes Vietnam less attractive compared to other ASEAN markets, where disclosure standards are more internationalized. Moreover, the limited information available in English-language increases the information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors, so the perception of risk increases. 

Another reason why Vietnam appears more challenging for foreign investors is its high dependance on exports. In fact, the export-driven economy makes it heavily reliant on global demand. As a result, the Vietnamese economy is particularly sensitive to supply-chain disruptions, external shocks and slowdowns in its main trade partners, above all the US, followed by China and Japan. Moreover, if global demand fell significantly, Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves would diminish and this would cause the depreciation of the domestic currency (VND). The instability of the exchange rate and its vulnerability to external shocks discourage investors, who prefer to divert their capital elsewhere.

Additionally, Vietnam’s ability to be fully integrated into global financial markets and attract long-term capital is partially limited by environmental challenges. In fact, the country’s high exposure to climate change-related disasters, such as flooding, the rise of sea level, and typhoons, requires the implementation of ad hoc environmental regulations, which may increase compliance costs.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Vietnam’s development is based on a mix of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats that shape its current position in the global economy. The country benefits from its strategic location, a young and large workforce, an increasing integration into global trade, which all support its rapid economic growth and create investment opportunities. At the same time, however, it continues to face notable risks, such as a complex regulatory system, lacking infrastructure, high vulnerability to external shocks, and foreign ownership limits that constrain FDI and slow down its growth. Understanding these geopolitical, geoeconomics and geostrategic dynamics is essential to assess Vietnam’s business and investment environment. 

Vietnam’s upgrade by the FTSE Russell and its classification as an Emerging Market by the IMF are clear indicators of the good performance of its economy, which has successfully managed to transition from an agricultural base, to more advanced manufacturing and service sectors. Although doubts remain, as revealed by the MSCI, if the Vietnamese government continues to adopt forward-looking reforms and policies to further open the country to global trade and financial markets, Vietnam will be able to reach the same level as its regional peers. 

Moreover, Vietnam’s membership in ASEAN has allowed the country to emerge as a stronger and more influential actor in the international arena. It is benefitting from the influence that ASEAN has in terms of economic, trade and diplomatic relations. This is significantly contributing to Vietnam’s development, laying the foundations for a definitive transition to the status of “emerging market”. 

Overall, Vietnam remains a promising destination for foreign investors, provided that the reforms currently ongoing continue to be implemented and that its structural challenges and deficits are properly addressed. 

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