THE NILE RIVER CONFLICT

Yohan Lainé, Leila Kharebava, Carmen Gutiérrez Armenteros, Giovanna Serpa Tucci, Sofia Gravina and Tatjana Hellawell

1. History Background 

1.1 The heart of Africa

The Nile River, the longest river in the world,  and it spams through 11 different countries throughout the African continent. Between them: Burundi, Tanzania, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda (The Wise Apple, 2025). The River is divided into three main regions: Blue Nile, White Nile and Atbara, each one with their own importance but all connected through the Nile (Macedo, 2019).  The Blue Nile has its start in the Tana river, located in Ethiopia, and it is later connected to the White Nile, located in Sudan (Aroundus, 2025). The Atbara river has its start in Northeast Ethiopia and goes up in the direction of Sudan, it is the last tributary before the Nile reaches the Mediterranean Sea (Macedo, 2019).

1.2 Crucial lifeline 

The Nile River had and still has a crucial role regarding the Egyptians and other nations beneficiated with the river. 

The River made possible the development and creation of  Egyptian civilizations, offering water, food, and transport, making life in the desert possible. The River has annual floods periods. During the months of July to September, the river deposits fertile nutrients on its margins, enabling abundant agriculture and economic development of civilizations (Egipto Exclusivo, 2024).

 The Nile is considered a pillar of life, culture and unification of Upper and Lower Egypt. The River also connected cities, which made commercial navigation, communication, and specially the transport of goods, food, and people. This incentivized social organization, which means, the development of the state and unification of Egypt, with mythological and religious influences being part of this process (Egipto Exclusivo, 2024).  Since the River has its periodic floods, the historiator  Herodotus describes Egypt as a “gift of the Nile”, once it was the pillar for the Egyptian societies development (Matias, n.d.).

Additionally, The Nile River is still a vital tool regarding agriculture, livelihoods, tourism and energy production for both Egypt and Sudan. Factors that, when combined, mold and influence the economy of both countries. Nowadays its main role includes hydroelectric energy production, supplying water and boosting tourism in those regions (EduBirdie, 2024). 

Analyzing its energetic production and irrigation is also important to mention The Aswan High Dam, that originated the Nasser Lake, generating electricity for a big portion of the Egyptian population. It also allowed control floods and enabled cultivation in areas that were previously desert. The River impacts and has a crucial lifeline mainly in the major cities alongside it, like Cairo and Khartoum, beneficiated from the margins of the river and its resources (Matias, n.d.).

1.3 White and Blue Nile river  

The White Nile starts in Lake Victoria, Tanzania. “Its name is due its color around the river margins because of the high number of sediments and clay transported by the river” (Sposob, 2024). Since its begins from an area with a wet equatorial climate, The White Nile has a crucial role guaranteeing that the Nile is a perennial river, having water throughout the entire year even when it passes through the desert and arid/dry climate of the continent (Suçuarana, n.d.). In addition to being crucial to keep the wildlife in the continent, the river passes through plateau areas, resulting in natural waterfalls, also known as cataracts, that makes navigation harder and provide hydroelectric potential for the countries evolved by the river (Guitarra, n.d.) (Sposob, n.d.).

The Blue Nile has its name also due its color, a really dark blue. This river is the main tributary of the Nile River and it is responsible for approximately 85% of its water volume (Aroundus, 2025). The Blue Nile has its start in the Tana river, located in Ethiopia. Beside its historical relevance, the river is a strategic natural infrastructure for navigation, as well as the development of regional agriculture and industry (Guitarra, n.d.). 

The Blue Nile is the reason for a geopolitical dispute involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, due to the construction of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (La Vella, 2020) . This project causes international tensions because neighboring countries fear the dam will compromise the water flow of the river, which is essential for their own industrial and agricultural activities.

1.4 A source of Culture, Faith and Identity

The Nile River is and has been one of the most important natural resources for human civilization. It has great cultural significance as it has been one of the main routes through which the first commercial and other connections and communications between civilizations developed. It has contributed to their subsistence through agriculture and generated a powerful source of cultural wealth (El Nilo, Historia De Una Civilización, 2022).

The river forms a central part of the construction of the culture of the adjacent peoples, especially and most notably the Egyptian identity, but also the Sudanese and Ethiopian identities.

Not only has it contributed to the construction of this identity, but it has also helped shape society itself, the rhythm of people’s lives, their politics, and the development of agriculture and livestock farming in the region.

Society was structured around the changes in the river, and this is how time and the seasons were organized (La Importancia Del Río Nilo, n.d.). In other words, the river flooded regularly at a specific time of year, which meant that society was organized around these natural phenomena for harvesting, cultivation, and gathering, as well as for behavior and other human activities. It also defined the use of the land for the other times of the year, and each area was used differently throughout the year (Bonzález, 2003) (La Importancia Del Nilo, n.d.).

 The community was responsible for cleaning and maintaining the river for irrigation and helping to prevent possible harmful flooding or damage to its ecosystem.

When it came to understanding the natural changes in the river’s course (floods and low water levels), the population resorted to constructing their own explanations. They linked this phenomenon to spiritual participation, a great example of which is the Philae Temple dedicated to the goddess Isis (Cordón, 2024). She represented fertility and the regeneration of the land through the flooding of the Nile River. In turn, she provided an explanation for life and death hand by hand with the God Osiris and the God Happy as a real representation of the Nile River.

Therefore, this river has shaped a very powerful religious image that has changed and adapted with and to society over the centuries. One of the most important characteristics attributed to it since ancient times has been as a source of prosperity, abundance, and strength (Río Nilo: Claves, Impacto Y Curiosidades, n.d.). It has mostly been considered a deity that grants good harvests for good food, protection, and abundance. As a reflection of this, numerous temples and religious buildings have been built on or near its banks, as we have already mentioned. It has also been the scene of ceremonies and rituals with great spiritual significance (Río Nilo Del Antiguo Egipto, n.d.). 

In conclusion, the Nile has helped shape the identity, culture, and religion of the surrounding population, but it has also made navigation, trade, communication, and connections between peoples possible. It has served as an economic, spiritual, and cultural hub (Royo, 2021).

1.5 Connecting Civilizations

One of the most important things that this natural treasure has given us is the ease of communication through navigation, which later led to trade between towns, and has been used by various powers later on.

The river allowed contact between the same territory or country and with different civilizations. Thanks to this waterway, the exchange of raw materials such as wood and metals, ideas, and craft techniques was not only facilitated but also spread, contributing to their development.

Navigation is responsible for the development of other activities. It is a central element through which we understand demographic movement and the connection between neighboring groups and peoples, in this case, in this region. Thanks to it, communication has not only become possible, but has also evolved. This activity has been divided into two main activities corresponding to the river area: river navigation, towards the southern area across the river, dated as the oldest activity (before 4000 BC). This was dedicated to internal transport, fishing, or ceremonies. These followed the course of the river, using the force of the river as organic-natural energy, which made them a very efficient means of transport. On the other hand, later maritime navigation towards the north, which led to the Mediterranean Sea (3000-2500 BC), was dedicated to more open trade, travel, or expeditions. The boats were more complex (Castel, 2025).

Over time, machinery that facilitated water management was implemented and expanded. Modernization led to a complex network of canals and dams that managed the flow of water to each piece of land (Egipto: El Río Nilo. Geografía Y Primeros Poblados, 2011). This led to a specialization of labor, which brought society together. 

At the same time, the river has been used as a colonial tool of control and organisation. The construction of channels and dams by Great Britain during the XX century are a clear example of these practices. That were used as a part of the hydrographic plan (El Nilo, Historia De Una Civilización, 2022).

Apart from its importance as a commercial and transport hub, the river has become a strategic tool for colonial countries that has triggered tensions and subsequent conflicts. Navigation and administration have evolved and become increasingly complex, which has led to numerous inequalities, dependencies, and rivalries over the access, power and use, both internally and externally (Royo, 2021).

2. The conflict by itself 

The Nile River is considered to be one of the largest rivers in the world, being the life source of more than 300 million people. The UN estimates that by 2050 the Nile population will be doubled, relying strongly on Nile’s water supply, putting significant pressure on its resources. At the moment, more than 4 million people in the Nile region face water scarcity problems. It is going to become an even more acute problem, as according to estimation, the water-scarce population will increase by 35% (80 million people) (The Organization for World Peace, 2020). This is due to fast population growth and environmental dynamics such as weather changes and the river’s flow variability.

There are ongoing disputes between Nile region countries regarding who has more rights for the Nile’s resources, particularly between Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and other affected countries of the region. Egypt claims that it has strong historic ties with the Nile, Ethiopia argues that 85% of Nile’s waters originate from the country, Sudan insists that it has equal claims to the river because of its strategic position between Egypt and Ethiopia (Mbaku,2020).

The Nile River system consists of two main tributaries, that is Blue Nile and White Nile, both emerging in Sudan. Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, which joins the White Nile in the capital of Sudan (Fernández, 2020).

2.1 Egypt-Sudanese water settlements

Egypt is the upstream country of the Nile Basin, and its climate is characterized by deserts, arid and semi-arid regions. Such landscape exacerbates Egypt’s water challenges as it does not have regular rainfalls, which makes it very dependent on Nile’s resources. It is estimated that 95% of its resources come from Nile waters (Fernández, 2022). This is one of the reasons for Egypt’s strong dedication to securing its rights to the river. Egypt has been historically the main consumer of the Nile since colonial times, and claims that any development on the river by other actors threatens its national security that threatens the historical rights to Nile under the legal basis of 1929 and 1959 treaties about the ownership of Nile (Fernández, 2022).

Sudan is the largest downstream country, and it hosts one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, which is the Atbara River. The 1959 agreement with Egypt has greatly benefited Sudan, which allowed the sharing of water resources between these two countries, even though most of the water goes to Egypt. Still, unlike Egypt, Sudan has additional water sources like surface waters, groundwaters, and rains. Nevertheless, Sudan shares interests with Ethiopia about water quality and economic development, as Sudan’s main challenge is growing population that creates strong demand for more water availability, with additional problems of water contamination, and inefficient irrigation which poses threats of floods and droughts (Fernández, 2022).

Colonial agreements exacerbated the tensions, where in 1929 agreement Britain granted Egypt exclusive rights over the Nile and it has the right to veto any projects on it (Guillermo, 2025). The 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan allocated an imbalanced amount of water: 18.5 billion cubic meters to Sudan, and 55.5 to Egypt (Mbaku, 2020). The agreement completely ignored Ethiopia’s involvement, considering the fact that the Tana Lake – which is the Nile’s source – lies on the territory of Ethiopia. The Nile River is also a vital part of Ethiopia’s national interests. Lastly, in 1999, the Nile Basin initiative was established by the 10 neighboring countries of the Nile aiming to “achieve sustainable and socio-economic development” of the Nile (Cascao, 2009). This initiative led to 2 programs : the Shared Vision Program aimed to develop trust and cooperation between the countries whereas the Subsidiary Actions Program set its sights on developing “specific investment programs” (Cascao, 2009). 

When GERD construction by Ethiopia started in 2011, Egypt claimed that this project threatens national and regional stability, especially Egyptian water security, emphasizing that Nile is inseparable from Egypt’s history, culture, and civilizational identity. Ethiopia insists that the GERD project is executed only with the purpose of enhancing development of the country (Ayferam, 2023).

Egypt employs certain strategies to preserve its rights over the river. Firstly, they are characterized by politicizing the Nile infrastructure. In 1960 and 1970, under Nasser lead, Egypt built the Aswan High Dam to generate electricity and allow better agricultural production, reinforcing the idea that Nile is an integral part of the country’s prosperity and culture. The river has had prominent cultural significance for Egypt since ancient times, for 7000 years it has been the main source of life and drinking water (Creta, 2023). A thought shared by the political analyst Mohamed Hassanein Heikal : “the first consideration of any Egyptian government is to guarantee that Nile waters are not threatened” (Cascao, 2009). Abbas Sharaky, the counsellor of Egypt’s government, emphasized that Egypt is the first country to legally obtain rights over the river, and Egypt’s veto power on any project regarding Nile is a great advantage, demonstrating its clear hegemony in this cause (Creta, 2023). This hydro hegemony of Egypt is also bolstered by European powers which through their national education program, indicate that the Nile is only part of Egypt without mentioning the other countries. Thus, as the Milgram experience showed us, a continuous teaching of specific information transforms the human mind to accept and only recognize this information (Natali, 2025). Here, by teaching Europeans the Egyptian myth of the Nile, European children and teenagers freely accept the concept without challenging the government’s opinions. 

Sudanese minister Yair Mohamed in 2019-2021 emphasized that in order to come to an agreement with Ethiopia, there is a need for more and transparent data sharing between the states in order to organize water allocation more effectively. This potential collaboration is shared by Abel Abate Demissi, a searcher working in the group Chatham House who underlines the sufficiency of the Nile for all the riparian countries (Creta, 2023).

Even though an open conflict is very unlikely to emerge, Ana Cascao, specialist on water policies, notes the possibility of Egypt and Sudan use of force, underlining military operations Eagle 1 and Eagle 2, in order to pressure Ethiopia regarding GERD. According to Kasaye Chemeda, the former general of Ethiopian army, the states also have significant strategic advantage of controlling the city of Meru and have military bases there, which enabled them better influence on the Nile, also with the use of Sudan. Therefore, the Ethiopia – Sudan border is under pressure by Egyptian secret services, with the aim of provoking national chaos to hinder GERD development. International organizations’ analysis show that potential conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia can happen between Sudan and Ethiopia, where Egyptian troops oppose Ethiopian armed groups such as Gumuz (Creta, 2023).

Secondly, Egypt pushes certain narratives to justify the ownership of the Nile. For example, at COP27 in November 2022, Egypt tapped on the problem of difficult water scarcity in the world to justify their policies regarding Nile, emphasizing that Ethiopia did not contribute to solve the problem of Egypt and Sudan concerns about GERD.  This has been fueled by UAE support of Egypt by creating new fertile zones in deserts, such as Canal Sugar in 2021, which strengthened Egypt’s leadership in agribusiness (Creta, 2023). Additionally, on the 9 of September 2025, for the inauguration of the GERD, Egypt referred to the UN Security Council about this issue, a call which was countered by the Ethiopian argument about the necessity to stop Arab colonialism in Africa  (Naidoo, 2025).

Egypt also ordered its citizens to cut rice production by 50%, which is the main production of Egypt. This way, Egypt taps on people’s feelings by putting guilt on Ethiopia, saying that such a measure is implemented in order to manage water shortages caused by Ethiopia’s actions, and it makes public resentment grow (Creta, 2023). This situation reflects Plato’s idea about “noble lie strategy”, where states create false narratives to manipulate public opinion, which Egypt actively uses (A theory which could be linked to Machiavelli’s theory that politics needs to be dissociated from moral justifying the use of lying in politics) (Natali, 2025).

According to civilian testimonies, such as Taha Ahmed, there is a worsening living conditions because they do not have enough water. In order to somehow ease the problem, Egypt began groundwater extraction, which is not very sustainable according to Abbas Shoraky, because it is non-renewable, and excessive reliance on it endangers future generations (Dropsy, 2025).

2.2 Ethiopian counterattack

Ethiopia has a lot of natural resources and therefore considerable potential for agriculture. One of the two big Nile’s tributaries (the Blue Nile and Atbara) originate from Ethiopia’s highlands, which is 80% of the whole Nile River. However, Ethiopia benefited very little from this, producing only 0.04-2% of irrigation and hydropower, mostly because Egypt owns the most of the Nile’s resources, which is almost 60% of the Blue Nile water (Fernández, 2022). This imbalance of the resource allocation is the core of the Egypt – Ethiopia dispute. Ethiopia emphasized its alienation from 1959 Nile water agreement by Britain and Egypt, saying that it violates Ethiopia’s basic right to use the water resources on its own territory. The agreement has been criticized by other Nile Basin countries as well due to the fact that it was imposed in the colonial era, and the countries did not have legitimacy to have a say on the cause and defend their interests. In 2010, Ethiopian prime minister Melez Zenawi decided to counter Egyptian and Sudanese dominance over the Nile by creating alliances with Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda.

Amidst the past instabilities like the civil wars and conflict with Eritrea, Ethiopia has very limited means to defend the flow of its waters. In order to compensate for that, Ethiopia is currently invested heavily in the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia sees as an essential opportunity to boost its economy, solve electricity problems and allow the export of electricity to other African countries (Guillermo, 2025). GERD is the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, with a max power capacity of 5150 MW (Webuild, 2025). It is capable of generating an enormous amount of electricity that will be enough for Ethiopia and other neighboring countries (Mbaku, 2020). However, it is also the reason for tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt claims it is a serious threat to its national security, yet Ethiopia insists that the project is purely developmental, with its primary purpose to deal with poverty and improve standards of living for many people (Ayferam, 2023).

One of Ethiopia’s strategies is spreading of pro-dam messages. Ethiopian president expressed his determination to continue the execution of the project, which started in 2011, saying that “nothing will stop it”. Pro-dam messages have been actively spread throughout the country, shared through voice messages such as “Be united to progress to our goal”. Ethiopian comedians such as Chaca Kifyat promoted nationalism and pro-dam propaganda to more than 200 cities with the use of his humor performances. The dam has become a “symbol of our unity, identity and perseverance”, where 135 million of Ethiopians see the Nile River as a source of affordable energy and economic development. Sinegnew Berkele was an Ethiopian civil engineer who was the chief of the GERD project. He was the public face of the dam, and was supposedly assassinated in 2018, which sparked multiple protests and has created even stronger nationalism over the dam (Creta, 2023).

The Ethiopian viewpoint over the Nile was also supported by the Nyerere doctrine. Julius Kambarage Nyerere was a Tanzanian philosopher advocating for the emergence of an African community struggling against colonialism in general. Therefore, this concept of African community/family commonly called in Swahili “Ujamaa”, was used to fight against Arab colonialism of Egypt and their colonial alliance with Britain. It justifies the creation of the GERD as a way of uniting the African countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia (Mwamba, 2025).

Another strategy is the mass mobilization of people to participate financially and physically in the development of the dam. It has resulted in significant amounts of investments, such as Ato Kef Yalew who donated 2500 euros, contributing to 500 million euros raised in 2023. Ethiopia also exports the energy produced by the dam to Kenya and Djibouti, using the money from them to fund the project (Creta, 2023). For instance, in September 2025, the Kenyan president William Ruto signed an agreement to benefit from the electricity provided by the dam (Naidoo, 2025). Some people were even ready to “pay with their own lives”, as Haile Mariam Desalegn said, for the sake of the dam (Creta, 2023). Such strong dedication to the dam construction can be an example of Marx’s concepts of social alienation through worker’s depersonalization and dehumanization as a sacrifice to the pursuit of this national objective (Natali, 2025).

Ethiopia justifies the execution of the project by putting emphasis on the fact that 65% of the population do not have access to electricity, and GERD’s powerful hydroelectric system is able to provide power for everyone (Creta, 2023). In tandem with this argument, UNICEF indicates that children in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia represent half of the persons affected by the water crisis in the African Horn; a figure used as a justification of the GERD by Ethiopia (Naidoo, 2025). An Ethiopian man called Alemuth Sega says that the life of people depends on earth, it is essential to have constant irrigation and fertile soil. He has a family of five children, who need electricity to study, and he noted that Ethiopians have been using the river since Antiquity. Ethiopia also has been criticizing the World Bank for failing to support such important projects for developing countries (Creta, 2023).

The dam itself was built in a military sensitive zone with various armed groups, including the disarmament of Gumuz. They felt threatened by the government and resisted the intervention, which resulted in displacement of civilians, who had to run to non-fertile areas with poor water access. The government promised them a compensation of 700 euros monthly salary, but it lasted only a few months (Creta, 2023). 

2.3 A non classical war

The actual conflict happening mainly between these three countries could be associated with a political concept wildly developed since the 21st century called : Irregular warfare.

According to the USAJFKSWCS (The US. Army John F.Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School), an irregular warfare could be considered as a new form of conflict not respecting the defined way of maintaining war; chiefly by the use of non required rules approved internationally (USAJFKSWCS, n.d.). Indeed while the symmetric warfare is characterized by the opposition of two equal army forces, the asymmetric or irregular warfare is symbolized by other forms undertaking at an “operational level”, a “military level” or a “political and strategic level” (Pfanner, 2005). In the same vein, the ongoing conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia could be identified as an irregular warfare mainly due to the presence of the operational and the political-strategic level. As a matter of fact, the Egyptian strategies described in the first paragraph such as the 1902 and 1952 agreement ignoring the presence of Ethiopia or the military presence of Egyptian secret services at the Ethiopian border with Sudan correspond to what is called the operational level. Here, both agreements would be categorized as an act of perfidy while the military presence would be identified as clandestine measures inasmuch as some of this presence is part of the Ethiopian territory without any act or say justifying it. Furthermore, the politicization of the event, the use of the “noble lie” for Egypt or the mobilization campaign led by Ethiopia,  could be considered as part of the political-strategic level as it aims to create a cultural and political clash between both nations.

What’s more, hypothetically the most significant strategy of this irregular warfare is the Weaponization of water. At first glance, this term is used when there is a military conflict between multiple countries in which water is used as a way of oppressing the other. However after scrutinizing the conflict, we understand that water could be used as a weapon by Ethiopia through the building of the GERD project in as much as it could be considered as a possible hydraulic domination. In fact, the building of the dam could give Ethiopia complete control over the water resources making the country influence vital needs in more than one country (Egypt, Sudan, Uganda, Kenya…). Considering that countries such as Egypt are highly dependent on the Nile, this potential Weaponization of water by Ethiopia could be considered both as part of the irregular warfare and as a detrimental threat for multiple countries potentially creating chaos in the region. 

To put it in a nutshell, this ongoing conflict is not only a political one. It is also characterized by its irregularity politically speaking leading to multiple detrimental tensions over the region. Nonetheless, this conflict is also a threat ecologically as it significantly impacts the environment as it will be described in the following part.  

3. Environmental Consequences 

The Nile River is shared by eleven countries, and it’s a transboundary water resource – “They are natural resources that extend across or are located on the political borders of two or more countries or jurisdictions” (Sustainability Directory, 2025). Cooperation between countries is required as an action in one country can directly affect the other. The Nile’s conflict is causing a lot of environmental consequences and they are not contained within borders but are passed on to different regions, affecting them economically, socially and environmentally. Some of these environmental consequences are the water scarcity, floods, droughts, pollution and the large-scale water infrastructures. 

3.1 Water disruption

As the population grows, shortages of freshwater are becoming a threat over time. Some countries in the southern basin are already water deficient. Over time in Egypt, the Nile has become polluted and faces water shortages. “According to a 2021 report from the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), the nation is protected to be classified as water scarce by 2025. That categorization is given to a country where the demand for water is greater than its supply.” (EBSCO – Research Databases, EBooks, Discovery Service, 2025). 

“95% of Egypt’s water is receding approximately 60 feet annually” (Schaefer, 2021). 

Floods are predicted to become more common in some regions, such as, Sudan and South Sudan, threatening the agricultural land and the livelihoods. Also, as water is reducing in some other places it is threatening agriculture by endangering food security, “For example, the total area for rice cultivation decreased by 31 percent in January of 2018” (Schaefer, 2021), leading to a reduction of job employability, as farmers are losing their jobs. 

3.2 Pollution 

Furthermore, pollution in the Nile river is another major factor that is affecting Egyptians, as people entirely rely on the Nile as its only source for drinking and crop irrigation. “Without proper treatment of recycled water, concentrations of heavy metals increase and are permanently embedded in the riverbed unlike organic pollutants which naturally degrade over time” (Dinoo, 2023). The contamination by these metals is damaging people that are depending on the river. 

Also, saltwater intrusion is becoming very important as sea levels are rising due to climate change, sea water intrusion is becoming more frequent and this prevents people in Egypt from using this water for domestic, agricultural and personal use. “The Nile Delta loses up to 25% of its land area by 2100 due to sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion, displacing millions and devastating agriculture” (Galici, 2025).

3.3 The Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam 

Additionally, the large-scale water infrastructure, the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam, on the Blue Nile, is benefitting Ethiopia but is damaging other countries. It is improving people’s living standards and creating job and economic opportunities for Ethiopians, but on the other hand it is complicating Sudan’s and Egypt’s conditions in receiving water. “The Blue Nile plays a crucial role in providing water for irrigation and hydroelectric power in Sudan and Egypt and provides over 95 % of the fertile soil to the NRB” (Ahmed et al., 2024) . 

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has intensified tensions between regions. Egypt is the largest user of water, and Ethiopia is the largest water source, using water and filling the dam to generate electricity, reducing its flow towards Egypt and Sudan (Galici, 2025). 

4. International actors/law 

The conflict over the Nile River is not just about the physical water resources, but a conflict over the legal principles and international rights. Since there is no single, universally accepted treaty binding all Nile nations, the dispute revolves around which legal framework should be used to govern the river. The central tensions lie between the colonial-era agreements, which favor downstream control, and the modern international water laws, which emphasises shared usage (Ayferam, 2023). 

4.1  Absolute Integrity or Equitable use

The main legal problem is that there are two completely opposing doctrines in international water law that dictate how a shared river should be managed. 

Egypt grounds its legal argument on the Theory of Absolute Territorial Integrity. This principle states that no country is allowed to use the waters of a transboundary natural river in a way that harms the rights of other nations downstream (Rieu-Clarke, 2017). Egypt grounds this claim in ‘historical rights’ established in two prior treatises, including that of the 1929 Nile Waters Agreement, between Egypt and Great Britain, which granted Egypt veto power over any construction that might reduce its water flow (Mlambo & Masuku, 2025). As well as, the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, which allocated the rivers entire average flow between the two nations (Tedla, 2017) (Mekonnen, 2010). Therefore any reduction in the Niles flow caused by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a direct violation of their territorial integrity.  

Egypt emphasises that this agreement isn’t just about losing their available water volume, but by violating this integrity it will lead to immediate economic and social poverty for millions of Egyptians who rely on the river for agriculture and drinking water. In their view upstream development cannot come at the cost of downstream destruction (Anuga et al., 2025). 

Opposingly, Ethiopia rejects these treaties and the concept of Absolute Integrity, arguing that upstream nations were ‘unfairly denied rights’ for decades due to colonial-era arrangement that excluded them from the decision-making process (Jarallah, n.d.)(Mlambo & Masuku, 2025). Instead, they base their position on the Theory of Limited Territorial Sovereignty (often associated with the concept of Common Natural Resources), arguing that nobody has an exclusive claim on the transboundary river, rather, it belongs to all the countries through which it flows through (McCaffrey, 2003) (Mekonnen, 2010). By asserting this concept of Equitable and Reasonable Use, Ethiopia developed the river for its own benefit, provided they uphold the responsibility of avoiding the significant harm to neighbours (Carmona-Moreno, 2020). Ethiopia believes that the river is big enough for every state if managed fairly, rather than reserved exclusively for Egypt as mentioned in the Treaties.

4.2 Conflicting rights (Water v.s Development) 

Beyond the legal treaties, this is a conflict against human rights. Although both nations feel they are defending and prioritizing different rights of their citizens.

For Egypt, the Nile is a matter of life and death, as almost its entire population relies on the Nile as its freshwater. Because of this, they argue that the Human Right to Water, which the UN officially recognises, supports their case, guaranteeing everyone the right to sufficient water for personal use (Mbaku & Antonio, 2024). Egypt has taken this further through the lens of securitization, which means they have turned a resource problem into a national security threat. Arguing that the GERD is filled too quickly, it won’t just lower the water level, or have an economic effect, it will threaten the food security and public health nationwide (Khayry, 2022) (Climate Diplomacy, n.d.). By linking the water directly to the human rights of their citizens, Egypt justifies its stance against the dam as a defense of its people’s survival.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, views the dam as their Right to Development. Millions of people in rural Ethiopia suffer from energy poverty, and the government argues that they have the right to use their natural resources to fix this (Carmona-Moreno, 2020). This is upheld in Article 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states everyone has the right to a ‘standard of living adequate for their health and well being’ (United Nations, n.d.). Therefore it is through the use of this Dam that Ethiopia will be able to generate the electricity that is essential for the standard of living, including modern healthcare, education and industrial growth (NDMC, 2021) (Climate Diplomacy, n.d.). 

4.3 Politics and mediation 

Outside powers have tried to help with negotiations, but they have mostly failed. The closest the countries ever came to a real solution was the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP). This was a major moment because Egypt finally accepted that the dam was being built, and Ethiopia promised not to cause ‘significant harm’ to its neighbors (International Water Law Project, 2015). Although the 2015 agreement offered a breakthrough, it failed to establish binding technical rules, allowing tensions to arise as soon as the project moved forward (Mbaku & Antonio, 2024) (Climate Diplomacy, n.d.). 

When regional talks failed, international actors stepped in, but this often made things worse. In 2019, the U.S. tried to mediate a deal, but the Trump administration was seen as biased toward Egypt (Climate Diplomacy, n.d.). Tensions peaked when the U.S. suspended nearly $130 million in aid to Ethiopia to force them to sign. Ethiopia felt “bullied” and accused the U.S. of trying to bring back colonial-style water rights (Tadias Magazine, 2020).  Egypt also tried to get the UN Security Council to step in, but the UN was reluctant to get involved in a regional water fight and sent the issue back to the African Union (Chereji, 2025). 

Since 2020, the African Union’s attempt to mediate under the slogan “African Solutions to African Problems” has largely stalled because the organization lacks the authority to enforce binding agreements, leading to a halt (Chereji, 2025). Because of this, Ethiopia shifted to unilateralism, where by filling the dam without a deal, they effectively forced Egypt and Sudan to accept the project,  rather than a proposal up for debate (Chereji, 2025).